# CA Decomposition: Trade vs Income Balance

## Main Results

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² | ρ |
|-------|---------|---|-----------|----|----|
| M1: Z → CA/GDP (baseline) | ca_gdp | 4,406 | 162 | 0.185 | 0.594 |
| M2: Z → Trade Balance | trade_balance_gdp | 3,937 | 150 | 0.275 | 0.870 |
| M3: Z → Income Balance | income_balance_gdp | 3,907 | 150 | 0.129 | 0.808 |
| M4: Z → Trade Balance + Z×KAOPEN | trade_balance_gdp | 3,937 | 150 | 0.290 | 0.867 |
| M5: Z → Income Balance + Z×KAOPEN | income_balance_gdp | 3,907 | 150 | 0.147 | 0.804 |
| M6a: OADR → CA | ca_gdp | 4,634 | 170 | 0.217 | 0.625 |
| M6b: OADR → Trade Bal | trade_balance_gdp | 4,119 | 157 | 0.306 | 0.876 |
| M6c: OADR → Income Bal | income_balance_gdp | 4,086 | 157 | 0.106 | 0.817 |
| M7: NFA split → Income Balance | income_balance_gdp | 3,907 | 150 | 0.136 | 0.807 |
| M8: OADR dynamics → Income Balance | income_balance_gdp | 4,086 | 157 | 0.109 | 0.817 |

## Key Coefficients

| Variable | Model | Coef | SE | p-value |
|----------|-------|------|----|---------|
| Z_1 | M1: Z → CA/GDP (baseline) | 3.0076 | 12.1877 | 0.8051 |
| Z_1 | M2: Z → Trade Balance | -3.0208 | 19.7111 | 0.8782 |
| Z_1 | M3: Z → Income Balance | 41.3648*** | 15.4488 | 0.0074 |
| Z_1 | M4: Z → Trade Balance + Z×KAOPEN | -8.5175 | 19.9338 | 0.6692 |
| Z_1 | M5: Z → Income Balance + Z×KAOPEN | 40.9574*** | 15.5493 | 0.0085 |
| Z_1 | M7: NFA split → Income Balance | 39.1696** | 15.4323 | 0.0112 |
| Z_2 | M1: Z → CA/GDP (baseline) | -0.2553 | 1.8274 | 0.8889 |
| Z_2 | M2: Z → Trade Balance | 0.0355 | 2.9560 | 0.9904 |
| Z_2 | M3: Z → Income Balance | -6.3992*** | 2.3132 | 0.0057 |
| Z_2 | M4: Z → Trade Balance + Z×KAOPEN | 1.0164 | 3.0235 | 0.7368 |
| Z_2 | M5: Z → Income Balance + Z×KAOPEN | -6.3453*** | 2.3588 | 0.0072 |
| Z_2 | M7: NFA split → Income Balance | -6.0330*** | 2.3122 | 0.0091 |
| Z_3 | M1: Z → CA/GDP (baseline) | 0.0036 | 0.0744 | 0.9615 |
| Z_3 | M2: Z → Trade Balance | -0.0023 | 0.1205 | 0.9848 |
| Z_3 | M3: Z → Income Balance | 0.2671*** | 0.0941 | 0.0046 |
| Z_3 | M4: Z → Trade Balance + Z×KAOPEN | -0.0471 | 0.1246 | 0.7056 |
| Z_3 | M5: Z → Income Balance + Z×KAOPEN | 0.2654*** | 0.0972 | 0.0064 |
| Z_3 | M7: NFA split → Income Balance | 0.2510*** | 0.0941 | 0.0077 |
| old_dep | M6a: OADR → CA | -14.8966*** | 4.3755 | 0.0007 |
| old_dep | M6b: OADR → Trade Bal | -41.9498*** | 7.6000 | 0.0000 |
| old_dep | M6c: OADR → Income Bal | 9.8359* | 5.5076 | 0.0742 |
| old_dep | M8: OADR dynamics → Income Balance | 28.0562 | 18.6503 | 0.1326 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | M1: Z → CA/GDP (baseline) | 0.1015 | 0.2242 | 0.6509 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | M2: Z → Trade Balance | -0.4782** | 0.2420 | 0.0482 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | M3: Z → Income Balance | -0.6909*** | 0.2204 | 0.0017 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | M4: Z → Trade Balance + Z×KAOPEN | -0.4984** | 0.2423 | 0.0397 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | M5: Z → Income Balance + Z×KAOPEN | -0.5964*** | 0.2205 | 0.0069 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | M6a: OADR → CA | 0.4088* | 0.2199 | 0.0631 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | M6b: OADR → Trade Bal | -0.4729** | 0.2347 | 0.0439 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | M6c: OADR → Income Bal | -0.5693*** | 0.2112 | 0.0071 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | M8: OADR dynamics → Income Balance | -0.5444** | 0.2123 | 0.0104 |
| nfa_positive | M7: NFA split → Income Balance | -1.0861*** | 0.3045 | 0.0004 |
| nfa_negative | M7: NFA split → Income Balance | -0.2040 | 0.3346 | 0.5420 |
| oadr_x_trend | M8: OADR dynamics → Income Balance | 0.0220 | 0.4640 | 0.9622 |
| old_dep_sq | M8: OADR dynamics → Income Balance | -54.5551 | 58.6296 | 0.3522 |
| Z_1_x_kaopen | M4: Z → Trade Balance + Z×KAOPEN | 21.4638** | 10.1467 | 0.0345 |
| Z_1_x_kaopen | M5: Z → Income Balance + Z×KAOPEN | -14.1541* | 8.5561 | 0.0982 |
| Z_2_x_kaopen | M4: Z → Trade Balance + Z×KAOPEN | -3.0637** | 1.5503 | 0.0482 |
| Z_2_x_kaopen | M5: Z → Income Balance + Z×KAOPEN | 1.7651 | 1.3055 | 0.1765 |
| Z_3_x_kaopen | M4: Z → Trade Balance + Z×KAOPEN | 0.1206* | 0.0639 | 0.0591 |
| Z_3_x_kaopen | M5: Z → Income Balance + Z×KAOPEN | -0.0626 | 0.0537 | 0.2446 |